格隆汇发布拼多多2Q25更新报告

Results Largely In Line with Expectations, with Strong Bottom-Line Beat. PDD reported total revenue of RMB103 billion in 2Q25, up 7% YoY and in line with consensus. Online marketing and other services revenue rose 13% YoY to RMB55.7 billion (vs. consensus: +11.8%), while transaction services revenue edged up 0.7% YoY to RMB48.3 billion (vs. consensus: +0.6%). Gross profit came in at RMB58.1 billion, slightly below expectations (consensus: RMB61.6 billion), with a gross margin of 56% (vs. consensus: 59.3%). GAAP sales and marketing expenses were notably lower at RMB27.2 billion (vs. consensus: RMB35.2 billion). Strong cost control contributed to a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB27.7 billion (vs. consensus: RMB23.3 billion) and non-GAAP net profit of RMB32.7 billion (vs. consensus: RMB22.4 billion), largely driven by higher investment and interest income.

Domestic E-Commerce Platform: Competitive Yet Disciplined. Despite recent subsidy-driven price wars in China’s e-commerce landscape, PDD refrained from aggressive participation, particularly in the on-demand and food delivery segments. Initially disadvantaged by limited exposure to national subsidies, PDD appears focused on mitigating short-term drag from the RMB100 billion merchant support program. Management emphasized that the industry is undergoing structural transformation, and PDD remains committed to long-term value creation through sustained investment in user experience, ecosystem development, and social impact. Notably, sales and marketing efficiency was a bright spot—spending rose only 4% YoY and came in RMB8 billion below market expectations.

Temu Adjusts Rapidly to Tariff Headwinds. Temu’s international momentum faced headwinds from the removal of the U.S. de minimis exemption and elevated tariffs on low-cost imports. As a result, PDD shifted from a fully-entrusted model (recognizing total sales as revenue) to a semi-entrusted model (recognizing commission-based revenue), impacting reported transaction services revenue growth. Despite these challenges, the segment remained resilient at RMB48.3 billion, up 0.7% YoY, reflecting the company’s agile pivot to new geographies such as Europe and the Middle East and its ability to scale the semi-entrusted model effectively.

Management Cautious, but Valuation Appears Undemanding. Management warned that the current profit level is not sustainable and future earnings may remain volatile. However, we believe earnings from the domestic business likely bottomed, and see limited downside in coming quarters. The stock is trading at US$128.21 per ADS, with a market cap of US$182 billion. Consensus expects 2025/26 revenue of US$60 billion/US$70 billion (+9%/+17% YoY) and EBITDA of US$13 billion/US$18 billion (+22%/+25% YoY), implying 10x/7x 2025/26 EV/EBITDA—well below the sector average of 25x/20x.