格隆汇发布拼多多3Q25更新报告

In-line with market expectations. PDD reported total revenue of RMB108bn in 3Q25, up 9% YoY and broadly in line with market expectations of RMB107.7bn. Online Marketing Services and Others (OMS) revenue came in at RMB53bn (vs. consensus: RMB56bn), reflecting softness relative to expectations. Transaction Services revenue reached RMB55bn, rising 10% YoY and beating consensus by 6%. Non-GAAP net profit margin landed at 29%, supported by RMB8.6bn of interest and investment income. OMS performance suggests either a moderation in GMV growth or a meaningful decline in domestic main-app take rate amid merchant support initiatives. This indicates that PDD’s domestic core app has yet to fully regain its growth edge after China’s nationwide subsidy program tapered.

PDD main app focused on high-quality development and intensified merchant support. On the earnings call, management emphasized continued large-scale investments to strengthen the platform ecosystem, including RMB100bn in fee reductions and extensive merchant-support initiatives. Management also highlighted that revenue and profit may show fluctuations in upcoming quarters, reflecting the company’s willingness to reinvest aggressively to fortify long-term competitiveness.

Temu GMV growth showed recovery. Following the disruption from de minimis exemption changes in 2Q25, Temu’s GMV growth in 3Q25 rebounded and nearly matched 1Q25 levels, delivering close to 40% YoY quarterly growth. Temu also expanded its overseas advertising footprint and continued diversifying its operating model post de minimis rule adjustments. The semi-entrusted model generated US$5.5bn in GMV—about 29% of Temu’s total—marking a record high and demonstrating improved access to local supply. Geographically, Temu is scaling rapidly: third-party research indicates Europe now contributes the largest GMV share (around 40%), followed by the U.S. at just over 30%, with the remainder coming from fast-growing markets in South America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and others.

Selling & Marketing stabilized as domestic trade-in program was temporarily suspended. Selling & Marketing expenses were RMB30bn in 3Q25, roughly flat YoY and below consensus (RMB33bn). PDD had been at a relative disadvantage during China’s trade-in program, as the company prioritized supporting small merchants by reducing pricing intensity. With the temporary suspension of the trade-in initiative during 3Q25, S&M expenses for the main app improved meaningfully. Conversely, R&D spending exceeded expectations due to higher personnel costs as well as increased bandwidth and server expenses. Management reiterated its long-term commitment to merchant-support programs and ecosystem investments to drive sales efficiency and lower operating costs for SME merchants.

Management cautious, but valuation appears undemanding. The company continues to adopt a long-term competitive mindset, increasing ecosystem investments that may weigh on near-term profitability while reinforcing structural growth prospects. We expect PDD’s domestic e-commerce market share to remain stable over the next 2–3 years. The stock is trading at US$119.58 per ADS, implying a market cap of US$170bn. Consensus forecasts 2025/26 revenue of US$60bn/US$70bn (+10%/+14% YoY) and EBITDA of US$14bn/US$17bn (+24%/+24% YoY), which translates to 9x/7x 2025/26 EV/EBITDA—well below the sector average of 24x/20x.