格隆汇发布京东2Q25更新报告

Better-Than-Expected Results. In 2Q25, JD.com reported revenue of RMB356.7 billion, up 22.4% YoY and 6% above Bloomberg consensus, driven by stronger-than-expected JD Retail growth and incremental logistics revenue from its food delivery business. Non-GAAP net profit came in at RMB7.4 billion, down 49% YoY due to higher investments in food delivery, but still 38% above consensus. Operating losses from new businesses widened to RMB14.8 billion versus our prior forecast of RMB10.6 billion, reflecting more aggressive investment in food delivery.

National Subsidy Fuels 21% Retail Growth. Retail revenue reached RMB310 billion, rising 20.8% YoY (vs. 17.5% consensus, a 3.3 ppt beat), primarily driven by the national subsidy program. General merchandise benefited from stronger supermarket and apparel sales as well as higher online traffic. The general merchandise growth rate accelerated by 1.5 ppt to 16.4% from 1Q25. Advertising and commission revenue grew 21.7%, up 6.0 ppt from last quarter, supported by rapid GMV expansion. Strong top-line momentum and improved gross margins lifted retail operating margin to 4.5% (+56 bps), with operating profit of RMB13.9 billion outpacing revenue growth.

Food Delivery: Traffic Expansion and Engagement. JD launched food delivery in April 2025 with stronger-than-expected order momentum. Single-day order volume climbed from 5 million on April 15 to 25 million on June 1, averaging an estimated 15 million orders per day in 2Q25. Unit economics indicate a loss of roughly RMB5.6 per order. While near-term investments led to RMB14.4 billion in new business operating losses, food delivery and quick commerce are enhancing user engagement, driving new user acquisition, and supporting cross-sell into higher-margin, lower-frequency e-commerce categories. Platform-wide shopping frequency rose over 40% YoY in 2Q25, with JD PLUS member frequency up more than 50%.

M&A Strengthens Globalization Strategy. JD just announced close of its acquisition of Hong Kong Jiabao Food Supermarket for HK$4 billion and has announced a voluntary public takeover offer for European consumer electronics retailer CECONOMY at €4.60 per share, alongside a strategic investment partnership. The deal, expected to close in 1H26, will result in CECONOMY going private by June 26, 2026, while maintaining operational independence. Unlike typical cross-border e-commerce platforms, JD leverages its supply chain strengths to help Chinese premium brands expand overseas and to provide cost-effective products to global consumers. JD is also committed to localization—building local teams, sourcing locally, and establishing long-term partnerships in target markets—while focusing on high-quality, branded products.

Valuation: Discount to Peers. E-commerce valuations are often benchmarked using EV/EBITDA multiples. JD trades at $31.58 per ADS, with an enterprise value of $40.96 billion. Consensus projects CY2025 EBITDA at $3.43 billion (11.9x EV/EBITDA) and CY2026 EBITDA at $7.29 billion (5.6x). This represents a substantial discount to peers, which trade at 16x and 21x EV/EBITDA for CY2025 and CY2026, respectively.